Spread betting on the World Cup, a high-risk form of gambling with potentially no limit to the gains and losses to be made, is rising steadily ahead of next month's kick-off, gaming sources say.
They report a 15 percent increase in spread bets so far compared to the last World Cup in 2002, and expect the amount staked to rise sharply once the competition starts on June 9.
The fundamental difference between fixed-odds betting and spread betting is that, with the former, if you bet 5 pounds all you can lose is your 5 pound stake.
With spread betting, the bookmaker offers an upper and a lower option for any given bet -- the difference between them being the spread -- but there are no fixed odds so the potential upside and downside are not defined until a result is known.
Chris Shillington head of media for sports betting at Cantor Index, says most of the pre-tournament betting has been coming from experienced gamblers.
"By that I mean that the betting isn't just centring on England," he said. "We expect the more emotional 'England bets' to start flooding in when the games start."
Most money at the moment was going on the World Cup 100.
Under this system, points are given for how far a team progresses in a tournament -- so 100 points for winning; 80 points for reaching the final, 60 points for third, 40 points for fourth and 30 points for reaching the quarter finals, with this sliding scale continuing to the group stages.
The spread being offered on England currently stands at 37-38 points, which assumes they will reach the quarter finals but not go as high as fourth.
So in theory, if a bet were laid at 10 pounds a point and England won the World Cup then the return would be 10 pounds for every point up to the 100, minus the top end spread (in this case 100-38 = 62) so 62 times the 10 pounds stake: 620 pounds.
What the gambler is saying here is that he or she thinks, unlike the spread forecast, that England will not go out at the quarter finals but will go all the way and lift the trophy.
The spread suggests 38 points is realistic for England so the person laying the bet receives 10 pounds for every point above that. Since the cup-winner registers 100 points, the gambler is 62 points up on 38 point forecast, hence the 620 pound payout.
The flipside for this is that if England shoot themselves in the foot again, the spread better loses 10 pounds for every point below the bottom end of the spread.
So if England went out at the quarter finals registering a modest 30 points, the registered loss would be 70 pounds.
For comparison, the spread currently being offered on favourites Brazil stands at 55-56 points.
LIGHTER BALL COUNTS
Shillington said canny spread betters were looking at changes to equipment and refereeing at this World Cup to influence how they were betting. The different ball this time for example has attracted much attention.
"Using a lighter ball that apparently allows more spin and is harder for goalkeepers to deal with, has persuaded many to bet on an higher number of goals than four years ago," he said. The spread now stands at 160-161."
Another popular bet is the number of yellow and red cards issued by referees.
"I think the shrewd betters are looking for last minute FIFA statements that call for a clampdown on diving, unprofessional conduct, tackles from behind and so on," he said.
"These last minute statements from FIFA are frequent occurrences and often put pressure on referees to issue more cards."
The current spread for yellow cards stands at 274-278 with the total red card spread standing at a much more modest 18-19.
Predicting the timing of events -- most notably the fastest goal or fastest booking -- are always a lucrative bet but not for the faint-hearted, according to Andrew Jacques, an active spread better from London.
"To a certain degree I think predicting the number of goals in a tournament can be backed up by looking at previous statistics and then analysing forthcoming tournament fixtures," he said.
"But the fastest goal is very hard to call. It could be 40 seconds or it could be 4 minutes and if you have bet 10 pounds for every second above or below a spread of 101-103 seconds, which is currently being offered by the indices, you could really take a big hit."
Jacques said it was important for spread betters to understand this potential downside, but insisted there was plenty to recommend spreadbetting too.
"With traditional bookmakers it is often very hard to find any value in the fixed odds but with spreadbetting there are far more prices that can be taken advantage of."
Some of the more speculative and outlandish spread bets being lodged include calculating what all the shirt numbers used by a team on the pitch add up to at the end of the game.
So if you think Owen Hargreaves at number 17 and Theo Walcott at number 23 will be the only subs added during the game, you would add 40 points to the original starting score.
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